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Fiscal Impact of the Bush Tax Cuts: They will add 2.5 trillion to the National Debt by 2020

According to Moddys Analytics Chief economist, Mark Zandi, if the Bush Tax Cuts are extended Permenantly they will add 2.5 trillion to the national debt by 2020, Congressional Budget Office concurs with his findings. see pg 3

http://www.moodysanalytics.com/~/media/Brochures/Economic-Consumer-Credit-Analytics/Samples/Dismal-Scientist.ashx

"Fiscal policymakers also face a major decision regarding the expiring 2001 and 2003 tax cuts. Passed up to a decade ago under the Bush administration, these will lapse at the end of 2010 if Congress does not act. The most important provisions concern individual income tax rates, but capital gains and dividend taxes will also be affected, as will personal exemptions, the marriage penalty, the alternative minimum tax, the Making Work Pay program, the earned income tax credit, child tax credit, and estate and gift taxes. In all, the Bush tax cuts are worth about $300 billion per year, or about 2% of GDP, according to the Congressional Budget Office."


If we had kept the Clinton Tax Rates

President Bush inherited perhaps the strongest federal balance sheet in postwar history. There were record-high surpluses, debt was at around 30 percent of GDP and falling, and the Congressional Budget Office projected that the federal government would be debt free by 2009.

http://cbo.gov/ftpdocs/27xx/doc2727/entire-report.pdf

The country was in great fiscal shape to deal with any crises or emergencies coming down the road, and it was even ready to deal with the coming retirement of the baby boom generation.

But rather than follow President Bill Clinton’s successful lead, President Bush handed out gigantic tax cuts, with people at the top of the income ladder getting the biggest breaks. Those “supply-side” tax cuts

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/09/supply_side.html

were a complete failure as economic policy, and now, instead of being debt free and well prepared to care for an aging population, our debt-to-GDP ratio is almost 70 percent. If those tax cuts are extended—instead of being allowed to expire on schedule at the end of 2012—it will approach 100 percent by 2021.

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Consequences for Medicare and Social security if Debt ceiling is not Raised

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2011-06-15-debt-limit-debate_n.htm

Debate over U.S. debt limit is going down to the wire

By Richard Wolf, USA TODAY Updated 6/16/2011

"America could run out of borrowed money.

Exactly one month ago, the Treasury Department began issuing IOUs rather than bonds to some government pension funds. That allowed for continued auctions of so-called "risk-free" Treasury bonds until Aug. 2.

Unless Congress acts by then, the world's richest nation — unable to borrow $4 billion a day to pay its bills — would risk default.

To hear Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner tell it, interest rates would spike, stock and home values would sink, savings and investment would dry up, jobs would disappear, businesses would fail, and everything from tax refunds to troops' salaries would go unpaid.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says it would lead to "severe disruptions" in financial markets, lower credit ratings and damage to the dollar and Treasury securities.

The centrist Democratic think tank Third Way claims the gyrations in labor, financial and stock markets would cost 642,500 jobs, add $19,175 to every mortgage in process and lop $8,816 from the typical 401(k) account.

Now comes the need to increase the government's $14.3 trillion debt limit — the amount of money it can owe creditors ranging from China to the Social Security Trust Fund. The ceiling was reached May 16, and only action by a reluctant Congress can raise it.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110519-712142.html

MAY 19, 2011, By Erin McCarthy
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling
wouldn't be good for the U.S. economy, Austan Goolsbee, chairman of
U.S. President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, said
Thursday.

If the debt ceiling isn't raised, the U.S. would be forced to default
either on government bonds, Social Security, Medicare or the military,
Goolsbee said while speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in
New York.

The U.S. hit its debt limit Monday, and Treasury officials expect to
exhaust the federal government's capacity to borrow in August.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has warned of an economic
catastrophe if the U.S. defaults on its debt.

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Impact of House GOP Legislation re: Medicare Medicaid (MediCal)

http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=2128

"Congressional Budget Office analysis of GOP Paul Ryan's proposal to
privatize Medicare and make cuts to Medicaid (MediCal)
Under the proposal, most elderly people who would be entitled to
premium support payments would pay more for their health care than
they would pay under the current Medicare system.

CBO estimated the beneficiary’s spending on premiums and out-of-pocket
expenditures as a share of a benchmark amount: what total health care
spending would be if a private insurer covered the beneficiary. By
2030, the beneficiary’s share would be 68 percent of that benchmark
under the proposal, 25 percent under the extended-baseline scenario,
and 30 percent under the alternative fiscal scenario.

Federal payments for Medicaid under the proposal would be
substantially smaller than currently projected amounts."

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If the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) is repealed, it will add 230 billion to Federal deficit


http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=1750

CBO’s Preliminary Analysis of H.R. 2, the Repealing the Job-Killing
Health Care Law Act

The House of Representatives is planning to consider a bill (H.R. 2)
to repeal the major health care legislation enacted last March—that
is, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA)

"As a result of changes in direct spending and revenues, CBO expects
that enacting H.R. 2 would probably increase federal budget deficits
over the 2012–2019 period by a total of roughly $145 billion (on the
basis of the original estimate), plus or minus the effects of
technical and economic changes that CBO and JCT will include in the
forthcoming estimate. Adding two more years (through 2021) brings the
projected increase in deficits to something in the vicinity of $230
billion"

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Kaiser Health News : Out of Pocket costs double for seniors on
Medicare

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/04/07/MNKF1IRDL6.DTL

Thursday, April 7, 2011
Laurie McGinley, Kaiser Health News

"Seniors and people with disabilities would pay much more for Medicare
under a new plan by Republicans in the House of Representatives that's
designed to curb the nation's growing budget deficit, a Congressional
Budget Office analysis shows.

For example, by 2030, typical 65-year-olds would be required to pay 68
percent of the cost of their coverage, which includes premiums,
deductibles and other out-of-pocket costs, according to the CBO.
They'd pay 25 percent under current law, the CBO said. Ryan's
proposal, called "The Path to Prosperity," also would scrap the health
care law's Medicaid expansion, repeal a voluntary long-term-care
insurance program and cancel an advisory board the law created to
recommend changes to Medicare spending.

Ryan appears to retain the health law's Medicare payment cuts to
hospitals and Medicare Advantage plans."

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GOP Budget proposal raises Taxes on Middle class, and lowers taxes for
the Rich GOP Republican Tax Plan for the Rich will add 2.9 trillion to the
deficit in the next 10 years

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/04/ta040711.html

also see this link:

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/04/ryan_tax_plan.html

Paul Ryan wants to lower the income tax rates on the top income
earners from 35% to 25%. This will cost the government 2.9 trillion
dollars in revenues over the next decade. So now Ryan wants to cut
Medicare and Medicaid to help pay for it. His budget will increase
seniors on medicare, out of pocket costs by 6000 dollars a year, to
12000 dollars annually. For those seniors on medicaid, who are in
nursing homes, Medicaid would not be able to cover the cost of their
care. Also his plan would lead to higher taxes (higher health care
costs) for the middle class and poor.

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/04/ta040711.html

Negative Fiscal Impact of The GOP Paul Ryan Budget on the Job Market.

Washington Post reports on comments made by Moodys Analytics Chief Economist, Mark Zandi, that the GOP Budget if passed would cause 700000 more jobs lost.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/28/AR2011022802634.html

then see discussion on this topic here


 
 
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